2019

Happy New Year to everyone! 2019 is here! Happy new year to those that have lived to see it. We remember those that didn’t. 

General appraisal of last year in relation to the last perspective 

We passed through 2017 and 2018 came upon us just like that. Like I said, 2018 would be slow but amazingly started moving quickly towards the end of the year. Generally, I would like to say that we are new wine in an old case. Nigerians have fundamentally changed, we are more learned, we are more discerning, we have been through a lot. But none of our changes as Nigerians have really changed any structures we have today. Still the same country, the same politicians, the same methods, the same patterns. 

So what I have seen is a departure of Nigerians from Nigeria whilst still living in Nigeria. There continues to be a big disconnect between how we see things (usually positive by the way) and the general apathy towards everything!!! 

Pastors, Imams, Politicians, Judges, Lawyers, and all professionals alike who speak to Nigerians on a daily basis are all saying the same thing….. They are not listening! They are not reacting! 

It’s in part a great effect of social media. Social media seems to be the only juice keeping Nigerians alive. That’s where the happiness and sadness, Information and Education, wisdom and stupidity, all come from. We are now seeing everything coming from every part of Nigeria and its so overwhelming now that the best way to deal with it is to joke about it or find some humour in it! Because if we were to react……. 

It’s not just Nigerians generally, it’s also these groups I mentioned trying to speak to us. They are also in their own world, lost touch, don’t have a clue, and for some, don’t care. They just need either your votes or your money. Sometimes both. This is the basis of my analysis for 2019. 

Religion 

Due to the effects of social media, all religious leaders are now more careful than ever. A terrible remark, an indecent exposure, an illicit relationship or gesture. Everything seems dangerous. What I have observed also is that there are no more “miracle” services or events. No more people rising and walking, no more sudden illness disappeared etc. Its not that God has left us, it’s that the leaders are no more engaging in such acts due to social media! Social media will investigate and trace everything! Will find that person that was “healed” and truly determine if it was a planned setup or even a lie by the “healed person” all for money or attention. All that has slowly gone away. Now we are left with prosperity, faith and all forms of unverifiable futuristic statements that really cannot touch on anybody. The anonymity of religion seems to be increasing. Anonymity brings sensationalism. It’s all part of the effect of fear among religious leaders not to say anything exact or specific as it can be challenged or disputed. Even in these political times, all seem quiet. All seem to be conforming not speaking against the government or its performance levels. This will sadly be the bane of 2019. Through the seeming confusion in all religious spheres, “Religion through other means” will begin to take effect. People will begin to listen to strange teachings and some will confuse motivational speakers with religious leaders. There will be the contraction of the religious life inwards (for protection in some cases) and people will begin to discern and dispute and disbelieve. I think its a year where we will go back to the old fashion method of simply reading our religious books and interpreting by ourselves. Finances of religious organizations will continue to take a hit. Lifestyles of religious leaders will also continue to take a hit. Desperation may set in, a lot more well to do people will be targets of individual manipulations and extortion. High income earners will feel this more than anybody else. Eventually and hopefully, there will be a re-alignment towards what these religious institutions are truly supposed to be doing and a proper assessment of whether they are truly helping our spiritual lives will emerge. Today, Pastors are careful not to talk about general dressing in churches (even for children!) as there may be a backlash. Other helpless areas that lack a response from religious leaders include the rising rate of Suicides which also is taken lightly in our Social Media Nation (I am not saying it’s the fault of the leaders but rather pointing out how it is being ignored!). Like I said last year, The elephant in the room for a lot of religious leaders will be how to enhance the protection and restoration of family values, love for fellow country men and service to country. 

Businesses, Individuals and Corporates 

2018 saw a lot of fragmentation of most businesses which gave rise to other businesses. People simply did the little they knew how to do. There were no massive expansions. Neither were there any massive gains. But the businesses survived. What business owners didn’t realize was that, with most businesses now supported by the Internet and social media, transactions increased and mainly happened through electronic means. Electronic means meant cash was minimal. Cash being minimal meant less losses. This made a lot of businesses more optimal in terms of income. But corruption fought back. A lot of business owners experienced huge losses through electronic channels “not working” especially the POS and alternatives like “bank transfer to the account of the staff” as a means of payment slowly and gradually increasing. This was one of the greatest frauds for most businesses in 2018. Sadly, cash based businesses saw the usual fraud levels and these owners still don’t have a clue how to make their businesses cashless. This calls for innovation which will be a big success factor in 2019. 

2019 will see a lot of deepening of businesses that survived 2018. The financial systems and channels available in the country will need to be improved. That will be the game for the winners of 2019. Innovation! Any financial channel or institution that innovates and creates more convenient payment channels will win! But 2019 will be the year of lending in my perspective. Anyone that can lend money even in small bits as small as N5,000 will be a winner. Why? Because the environment is ripe. The key to lending is Knowing Your Customer (KYC). KYC with all technologies available is much simpler and better now. Innovations in identification will lead to access to greater financial services that will take control of the lives of the average Nigerian in 2019. This will increase businesses and possibilities. The shadow of the 2019 elections loom over businesses but somehow my perspective is that people have been driven up the wall so bad that they are now simply non-responsive to these political issues. 

Another important area of our economy is the exchange rates and financial instruments linked to the dollar. There is SO MUCH dollar cash locked away in Nigeria currently, its unbelievable! One must not think it is concentrated in a few hands, I would simply say it is in a LOT of hands. Channels to spend them or transfer them abroad have largely been blocked. This is also a new problem in Nigeria as these funds were always earmarked for elections in the past. Now, with the current government policies, no one is sure what currencies to spend or how much should be utilized for elections. Puzzling is the fact that elections in Nigeria have always been based on cash flying up and down. Now, no one is really sure what will win an election anymore. The ghost of the cash spent in 2016 which still recorded a lost election seems to loom large now. 

For corporate folks, working for the salary, keeping the same salary level as last year will be a terrible mistake. With quietly moving inflation levels, you may not survive on the same salary as you did in 2018. Do not get over confident in your “level or title” in any organization, as you may not be able to “sell” it in another organization. What’s important is to increase your take home. If not possible within your environment, then you may consider sacrificing a few extra hours and weekends and spending on a second source of income. If you can take a better salary in another organization with a lower title, take it. It just means you have a lot more opportunity to rise in that new organization. A lot of us have peaked out in our existing organizations with nothing left above. This is slowly causing a lot of fear and sadness. This in turn is taking a toll on our Health. Better to be in a job that reduces your BP level and be alive. 

Politics! Yes, Politics! 

Honestly, I was going to just put “No Comment” here as all the babalawos and future seers and gods consulted all came back with confusing results. The focus of Nigerians actually in 2019 is not the winner. It’s how the election will be won. What level of desperation was displayed, what terrible things did they do, was it really the mandate of the people? Current pointers on the pace of the printing of the ballot papers and other critical preparations that should have been concluded by now is another worrying aspect of the whole saga. Will this be an excuse for postponement? I hope not. Will it be used as an incumbent strategy? The quiet disorganization in INEC now being generally ignored is a potential blind side for the integrity of the whole process. The general apathy described above has been worsened by the fact that Nigerians generally are angry about one thing – How did we get back to a 2 party election again. Either this party or that party. The reality that we can’t even introduce a third party into the political scene has also brought a lot of dismay. SO, in response, it will be more apathy. Today is January 1st, 2019 and no one really knows what the hot election issues are! No one remembers any campaign statements. Nothing new. Same old. Same promises. But we have to be careful. The level of desperation that will be displayed by both sides will be beyond imagination. At least before the election. After the election, personally, my fear is either side accepting the results. What will they be prepared to do? But we have also seen this before. 

So, as usual, things will grind to a slow halt towards election (government wise). The social media nation will go on as if nothing was happening with a few much needed holidays in between. Right now, nothing more than this is seen. 

As I rightly predicted in 2018, some young ones and individuals will emerge, there will be all the noise but has ended in the same structure. Lots of money lost but rightly so, experience gained. Right now, people are taking comfort that whatever candidate emerges, some leaning towards the incumbent (and attaching certain events that will see the emergence of a new President such as we have seen before) and a lot on the other side wishing that the swamp be drained by someone who knows the swamp well (or should I say prospered from the swamp), Nigeria must progress and remain stable. We do recognize all the failures of all the structures in the country. Sadly, This election is not about correcting those structures as we can see. 

Assuming, just saying, if this election were to be lost by the incumbent, it would end the natural 8 year calculation of most presidential hopefuls and begin a process where Presidents now work to ensure they achieve their goals within 4 years. That may singularly be the only thing that will change the structure of politics in Nigeria. But then….. 

The only significant event that made we wonder was the closure of the American embassy in Nigeria and consequent reduction of its staff. This has been done before but not at this level. 

And so I say again like I said in 2018, “With this, 2019 will remain open. Free for all. None able to claim a right to why they should be the next president or leader in any office”. 

Technology 

As we all can see, we cannot avoid technology. Do so at your own peril. That is the real education we are all undergoing now. We are all not just members of the SMS and Calls nation, we are now members of 

the social media nation. This is making a lot of youth do so many things and go in so many directions. The older ones are taking it slowly but surely. 

With technology revamping our financial services sectors, our lifestyles, the way we move, where we go, what we even eat, it has become one of the major things that has kept Nigeria together, largely because it has made Nigeria smaller. Those that infuse technology in their businesses will surely see a rise. Those that start new businesses based on technology available in Nigeria will also see the fruits. We are an adopter nation. We embrace technology quickly. We would buy more of it if available but we also don’t have the funds to chase technology. For now, technology especially in the area of Financial services, Social media and Communication will continue to innovate. But then, it will also continue to be more intrusive, more entangled with our lifestyles and ultimately will serve the big brother effect to the developed nations. They will see everything. Who we are. What we do. Nations like ours and especially Africa will be at the mercy of these tech giants who will serve the purposes of these developed nations who seek to control us. 

Fake news will also be used against us at alarming levels. We have to really watch out for that. Trump has been vindicated in my opinion that fake news can create chaos, topple governments and create panic and destruction. I saw on the news the other day, A big time “African prince” responsible for millions of emails and scams arrested by the FBI. Shocking, it was a White middle-aged American man. We have also come to believe fake news about ourselves as Nigerians. 

Personal Finance 

Nigerian finance is always a cycle. We go through tough times, we adjust to those tough times, find a way out and come back to where we were before. But this time I believe with a little more sense. A key thing we must realise is that our economy is always compared to other economies and its by that relativity that we are measured. In 2019, I believe the economy will look much better, not because we are doing better but because the others are doing much worse. There will be confusion in all dollar lands if Trump is impeached, There is already confusion in the UK over Brexit which is bound to hurt financially very soon, There is overconfidence in Europe over Brexit which assumes the Euro will do better. Coming home, there is excess dollars in cash in Nigeria that needs to get out. These will affect our finances more in 2019 than even elections. 

My financial outlook for this year are below 

1. We will spend some more. We have saved some and don’t know what to do with it. 
2. Great to see that the dollar is no more the driving force on our personal finances. Lower exchange rates will see greater spending. 
3. As said before, people will not stock anything. On demand services will continue to rise. 
4. Most have learnt and it has become a standard to have multiple sources of income. This will continue. 
5. Documenting your expenses remains the best method of survival, if properly done over the last 2 years, you should know what to expect in 2019. You will surely have less anxiety. Merely knowing what is coming is a good start. 
6. For those experiencing financial troubles, be careful that all you will do is kick the can down the road due to the upcoming easy lending channels. 
7. For corporate earners, keeping your head low will not solve your problem. Getting promoted through brave moves will be your only solution either within the organization or by moving to another. 
8. Luxury spending which was very low last year will increase this year. 

General Outlook 

I will advise a new experiment – Write a will. Women have been known not to do this a lot. But it’s not the Will that is important but the activity within it. It will force you to critically access where you are in life, what you have achieved, what is important and determine where you want to go. It will even influence your health positively if done sincerely. If married, it will also determine the level of communication and involvement you need with your spouse. The rate at which young people are going is alarming and the terrible state of affairs left behind. 

So generally, 2019 will be a better year for us once the political “dark” cloud over us shifts. Our apathy does not mean there are no problems coming since we have seen clearly that majority of our political office holders are NOT sincere but rather are looking to advance their own personal agendas (even with some engaging in acting movies and pretending to be sick!). The level of desperation displayed will become cumulative and can become a national issue. Rather than demand resignations, as I said, Nigerians seem to condone and find humour in the Social Media Nation we all tend to belong now. Somewhat unreal! 

Security challenges as an election tool will be experienced sadly. But we must see it as just that. Prevention is another issue entirely. 

Low level theft will be rampant so keep everything close to you. Particularly in cars, please always keep your car clean and not leave any items in the car. Always keep everything in the trunk if you have to take it along. 

I wish us all the best and hope we all have a wonderful year! Please vote as we must also end the Apathy! 

Damilola Bamiro