2024: My Perspectives for the 7th Year!

MR. DAMILOLA BAMIRO PERSPECTIVES FOR 2024

This is the 7^th year of writing these perspectives and yes, probably the 7^th time I would say Happy New year through this medium. So, Happy New Year All. My perspectives, not predictions, have become a new year reading exercise for some, for some, a good intuition of what may happen and, in some cases, due to holidays, just something to read whilst you plan for the new year within all the other plans laden with resolutions and promises to self and others.

Every year feels different and that is the scary part. But in any case, one must make a bold stand on what I believe is a possibility and, in some cases, a reality.

The first and foremost is always Nigeria on my mind. Where are we and what direction are we headed. Does it matter? Yes. It does. It causes movements, exoduses and in some cases, reversals. So, let’s talk about where I think the country is now.

Politics

In my 2023 perspective, there were 2 critical names and what the significance of those names were. What was more critical, was their decisions. This played out exactly as I feared. What was scarier was that, it was a year where we all didn’t truly grasp the weight of the politics ongoing and what it meant for the country. So where are we now? Like I said, we would be electing a president without Godfathers. We would be electing a president without shackles. Free to take decisions, free to axe and gore as he pleases. The drawback? Many quarters will resort to typical words like “He is not listening”, “we don’t know his plans…” and in other quarters, statements that would tend to dictate “what has always been and should be continued, has now been discarded!”. What we are about to experience is a President and his personality.

Whether we like it or not, the emergence of a strong middle class in Africa and especially Nigeria will make elections expensive and open ended. Politicians have long enjoyed the structure we have. This is the Lower Class (With an Upper and Lower band) and the Upper class (equally with an Upper and Lower Band). In context, I would say a successful banker falls in the Upper band of the Lower Class. A privileged child of an influential businessman or politician would be in the Lower band of the Upper class. In all, the middle class remains thin, and may I say, Nigeria is the only country where you can “jump” the middle class within 1 month! That said, the strong tenets of the new presidents seem to indicate that a middle class will be born (or massively expanded) in Nigeria. There are past presidents who are still being punished till today for expanding this class. This upsets the entire political scenery of the country. They ask questions. They are expensive to walk over or buy over. They vote with their conscience and facts. They believe in debates. They are just simply expensive for politics. Will they emerge in this dispensation? It’s for us to see in the next 4 years. On the other hand, those that have moved from the lower to upper class in this country are beneficiaries of its non-existence. The “I don hammer” crew. The “sudden wealth club”. Guaranteed, what makes this country great for some people is that those movements are NEVER questioned unless maybe they step on toes. So, for 2024, the political terrain will be quiet. All sitting at the feet of the king, waiting for manna or wisdom (or both). Realignments of any member of any political group will be too soon and of no benefit. So right now, the focus will be to recoup investments in the last elections and ensure money flows. But then, what if the money does not flow as expected, will they be able to challenge the King? It waits to be seen. The political terrain will not be the golden boy of 2024. The economy will be.

Economy

The reality is that we now have a captain of the ship for the first time in a long time. Now the ship is sailing. We have left the seaport and we have headed to the open sea. Now the question becomes, where are we going? This is not a political question but a decision. Are we going East or West? The West seems to have played a less critical role in these elections than the East. That was also a first. So, the issue for our new president is – In which direction should we sail? I personally don’t believe we must sail in one direction, but the urgency of the world order today seems to suggest that we must make a choice. This is where the issues begin. Indicators currently are not good. The high dollar, the world wars and the unpredictable recessions knocking on every country’s door will be center stage in 2024. I must say that already, the resilience of Nigerians in the face of the current economic situation has been admirable. Much less has happened in other countries that sparked a national crisis which ultimately removed some presidents. But our great Country has shown strength. And that strength has also enabled the new President the time to resolve the critical issues. But the timing is short. The honeymoon will surely not be for 4 years. I like this country for one thing, the dynamics are never in one direction and the issues are never singular. Whilst we have started dropping that terrible concept of “Japa”, you will remember that I mentioned that “Japada” will emerge. And so, it is happening already. In Education, Health and other critical areas. Now, Nigerian Educational Institutions and Nigerian Health structures are not so bad. Fortunately, 2024 will see massive investments into Health and Education by Federal, State and Private sector players. I fear the age of foreign educational exploits and Health tourism is ending.  Economic refugees or their beneficiaries, seem to realize that there are problems everywhere and that the best problems to deal with are those that you find at home. So, in terms of the economy, a lot needs to happen. A lot will happen. A lot is unpredictable. Being returned to the period of an exchange rate of N600 to the Dollar seems like a dream now. The much-awaited Oil processing capacities will surely come into play in 2024. Some already have in small capacities. But will it make a change? The reality is that we need to determine as a country how connected we need to be to the foreign dollar-based markets and indices. Or should we go East and base our economy on another currency other than the dollar? With the number of variables in 2024 and shifting goalposts, that resilience we very much depend on will be shaken to the roots. But I am positive we will survive. One way or another. We always have. 2024 will not be different.

I must at this point, once again, call on Nigerians who accept things as they are (we all do and this must change) to continue to ask a basic question. Who calculates the rate for the Black market? Where is the stock exchange that closes every day and re-opens the next day with a figure? How are these new rates transmitted? Why is it uniform? Why is it unknown at 8am in the morning but known by 11am in the same day. At the same time, everwhere! If there is control involved, who? Can we confidently then term this as a terrorism problem and not a financial problem if we cannot identify these individuals, groups or markets that determine such a crucial figure to more than 200 million people? I have engaged foremost economists who “assume” that there is a market that controls this rate. Now I ask, Where? Who? How? Are you a member? Even the biggest ones don’t seem to have a ready answer. Why can’t the black-market rate come down so that the Central Bank does not have to waste precious Naira to fight the dollar and its unknown players? Let’s confidently exclude the BDC operator who only cares about his margin whether at 1,100 or 450. Let us as a country, critically assess how the rates are determined and stop making assumptions!

Religion

Religiosity and Religious activities will be high in 2024. The age-old concepts of sensational statements and public display of riches based on religious structures and personalities will come back. The Covid days dealt this a serious blow but will come back in 2024. We will need to believe in our Gods in 2024 to carry us through. And there must be the appointed ones (or existing ones) who will nudge us on. So, it will be necessary. I must say, back to business as usual.

Personal Finance

This will be the greatest test this year for anyone. 2023 has ended creating a lot of uncertainty for 2024. Many have entered 2024 drained. Savings eroded. A lot of people offloaded assets mainly to stem the downturns of 2023. Some, with short lived euphoria that they changed the dollar at N620 and have come to return it back to Naira at 1,100 seem to think they have made a profit. Not true. The can was just kicked down the road. Only a few with foreign incomes truly felt undisturbed by the downturn of the Naira. But then, they also are beginning to see that the foreign currency they are depending on may not come as easily as before. In short, the foreign earnings too have started to dry up.

Personally, I feel for the terrible situation those that have gone abroad especially Canada find themselves now. Chief amongst these are uncertainty, loneliness and regret. A lot were simply not properly informed before making the choices. But gladly, there have been a lot of feedbacks by honest ones who have warned those at home not to come. On the flip side are the stubborn ones who still feel anywhere is better than Nigeria. In my opinion, the cost of ticket alone, if put into a business here locally may turn things around for the individual here. For some, japa is the only option and they will press on.

For those of us that remain, I have a few pointers for this year.

1. I say again, No foreign debt. Do not do any business or have any exposures in foreign currencies. It is currently very open ended and uncertain.
2. Quick return electronic platforms offering sweet money deals is a No-No. Do not go near. Your money will be gone in an instant with nobody to report to.
3. If you need to borrow, borrow in Naira at any rate. You are safer.
4. If you need to Japa. Sell Nothing. Keep everything intact here in Nigeria for at least 1 year.
5. Mental health in personal finance is becoming a serious issue. Do not put yourself through any mental tortures especially comparing yourself with others with unknown sources of their fortunes. You cannot do what they do.
6. Should you have any sudden income, do not be quick to invest it. Just keep it for a minimum of 6 months. Keep your head straight and then invest wisely.
7. Assets like cars, housing and other investments are cheapest now. Anyone sold in Naira.
8. Increased savings in Naira is critical to mental health. Do not spend yourself into the ground. It’s the fastest route to depression.
9. Be careful of borrowing though. You must be sure of the return.
10. Personal commitments to attend functions that require travel must be an absolutely critical need. Else, just send half the cost of the ticket to the person with apologies.

Corporates

The business world was in limbo in 2022. The first half was the worst. Certainly, there weren’t any bold moves in the private sector. Only a few major deals stood out. The latter half of the year almost marked a recovery, but the exchange rates and subsidy removal took everything into a spiral. But note, not all businesses are based on the exchange rates. A lot are not even directly connected. But somehow everyone felt impacted. 2024 will show in the first quarter that the possibility of a rebound is possible but the news all around seems to be “brace yourself”, “brace for impact”. Once again, I will echo the Nigerian resilience. More than that though, in this great country, is the fact that when one door shuts in Nigeria, sometimes, two other doors open. What this indicates is that businesses must remain agile. They must always find ways to adapt and overcome. There are some sectors that have remained immune to these economic disruptions i.e. Nigerians continue to spend in those sectors beyond reasonable comprehension. It’s good to be there but 2024 will beg for caution. I would not want to join the brace for impact calls, but I would say that Corporates must proceed with caution. Human Resources and Corporate benefits will be the greatest argument in Board rooms this year. This is partly due to the fact that a lot in the corporate world are now abandoning their ‘Japa” plans and want to stay and fight for benefits where they are now. Remote work strategies have faded now which I believe is a mistake. The companies that will emerge in 2024 will be light and agile with lower focus on assets but rather transactional strength. 

Business Dealings

Medium to small business owners will have only one thing on their minds – expansion. But expansion will need loans. Loan processing will be frustrating and nearly impossible unless there is a clear and specific mandate by Government on Loans and access to SME funding. Any upset in the economy may see medium to small businesses maintaining status quo. My advice to these businesses is to have a strategy for No Change. This means that if nothing changes, how do we survive? There must be an intentional strategy for this.

On personal levels, I want to say this will be the year of the Lawyer. Any wise person getting into any business dealing should have their lawyers nearby. If you don’t have one, get one. The year may herald a lot of business desperation that may make people do the unthinkable.

Family

The family structure continues to be under attack in Nigeria. Social Media fight has been lost already. So, the only way forward is damage control. Parents are now more distracted than ever with the great demands on them from Work or their Businesses. The family unit is now more integrated with strangers now more than ever. Which means that busy parents indicate that they have left kids with other family or hired hands. This reduces monitoring. Technology is also losing the fight as parents that installed various technologies to monitor things in their homes do not even have time to review events anymore. We may have to go back to the basics of giving children phones just for voice communication and monitoring only, at least the ones under 14 years. After 14, all that’s left is the sanity of their environment and quality of schools they attend. I must emphatically say, this is easier in Nigeria than abroad. The war is lost the moment the child steps on that plane. All that you have failed to do whilst the kid was here will come back to bite us in our thoughts and fears.

Family bonding will be the key to 2024. As many events and routines as possible. Routines are the worst and require the greatest sacrifice. But they are the greatest method of teaching a child.

Technology

Technology advancements are happening more in Nigeria than many other parts of the world. We do not celebrate ourselves in Nigeria in the areas of Technology utilization and adoption. We are truly advanced in a lot of sectors. We just do not appreciate it. But it won’t stop technology. The future of technology in 2024 is Ownership. Which business owns what technology and how do they use it. It will determine the businesses that survive and those that simply are overtaken by events. As there are increased hardships, so will technology continue to offer an alternative. That alternative may erase some businesses. This is a trend that will continue in Nigeria as we begin to find alternate methods of reducing costs or accessing goods and services.

The new tech companies that will emerge will have access to only one basic ingredient – Personalized Data. Either by partnering to utilize existing data or by finding new methods of creating new data. This will be key in many sectors.

The great new force called Artificial Intelligence (AI) will take on a new shape. Its ability to integrate with new technologies and operate in the background. Most foreground AI applications scare people. But the scarier scenario is when AI runs in the background undetected. This will be a new bride for Businesses, Governments and Big Data companies.

Personal Health

Personal Health will be the greatest worry of most individuals above 25 or in the general working class. The demands of 2023 were enormous in terms of time, effort and personal sacrifices. 2024 will demand more which calls for a strategy for how to manage and juggle life, work and mental health. The killer this year will be endless worry and the fear of the unknown. This directly affects mental health in a lot of areas. This is where we must all focus.

Routines will help. Knowing you participate or do something in a frequent and timely manner brings sanity. It also affords the individual the ability to reset every time. This should be taken seriously. Whatever it is, start and don’t stop during this year. Exercise is only an option. A viable one but for mental health, not the only one. Attending or doing something in a predictable manner possibly on a weekly basis will bring mental sanity to most. Where this is not possible, picking up a new skill can also substitute.

General Outlook

My general outlook for this year is essentially still same as last year only that the conditions are different. Remember this piece is a perspective and not a prediction or prophesy. I would encourage us all to be guided and remain open to options in all situations. So, as a typical guide, I would then propose the following as a best practice for this year:

1. There are financial booms in sight in sectors that are non-luxury. Necessities especially. Creating cheaper alternatives to any existing Good or Service is a quick win. Regarding financial investments, invest in only things that can be converted back to cash easily and are not electronic in nature.
2. Like I had said before, always speak your mind, damning the consequences. It will give you mental peace. Bottling up issues with anyone or group translates easily to health problems nowadays more than ever. Mental health is now a serious issue in Nigeria, and we are not exempt from all the negative world events.
3. Record all spending. By now, you should have at least 7-year records of your spending which should now form a pattern for you. Let that summary dictate which decision to make on your finances, going forward. If you have not started, start today. Use Excel. Very simple and easy.
4. Like I said earlier, develop a routine. It will be the easiest way to improve mental health.
5. Get a lawyer. This is for everybody. Seek legal counsel in everything you will do this year, no matter how small.
6. Lastly, I would encourage us all to remain strong in our faiths, be wary of fake or insincere religious leadership and God will help us through this year.

Damilola Bamiro