First Take:

2020 was a terrible year Health wise. We lost so many. We lost so many things. We gave up so many things. We also discovered so many things about ourselves. Nobody saw the pandemic coming really. Especially the scale. Nobody thought it could be in the same world that so many would die. But a few knew, a few knew how close we were. The Reality now begins to set in. This is going to be the “new normal”. The Question is: What is the “New Normal”? I would like to dangerously state that the new normal is not the Corona Virus or COVID19 as we also call it, it’s that we have purposely or in error been pushed into the age of Bio Warfare. Nuclear weapons will remain dead in their silos, useless. The suspicions rise from the cure. If you can DNA target a cure, you can also DNA target a virus! The fear grows that the virus(es) is being tested and can ultimately lead to specific targeting of age, race and colour. The fear grows, but only in the rest of the world.  In Nigeria, due to the “God himself came down to Nigeria to save us” feeling we have regarding the death rate in Nigeria, we have been “casual” and remain focused on “what shall I eat today”. This has also prevented us from participating on the world scene regarding the economics surrounding the virus. 

So once again, ever so often, Nigerians will have to take their future into their own hands and do what we do best – Be your own country! Be responsible for your food, water, security, growth and sanity. 

Reviewing 2020, in reality, irrespective of the stay at home and sad effects on businesses, New Millionaires still rose up through the ashes. Which is why I would always beg you to keep a 30,000 view of things in Nigeria. Government, the biggest spender in Nigeria released a lot of money. Corporates also did. In the area of advertisement, health, pharmaceuticals, healthcare devices etc. Lots of money was spent, new millionaires and billionaires were made. Lots of red tapes and due processes even removed. Money continued to flow within hands in Nigeria. This is key for you to understand how this country really works. The money must keep flowing irrespective of the situation. The informal sector, which remains the one that keeps subsidizing the formal sector in Nigeria, was shaken but continued moving. Food (Markets, Shops and Restaurants), Religion (All our religious institutions), Transportation (huge delivery sector now) and Basic supply Markets continued to see cash. Movement of cash in these sectors continues to drive the economy. It slowed but didn’t stop. Else, that would have been the real catastrophe. 

Religion

Many unprecedented events happened during COVID. The redefinition of what religion and religious worship means was the biggest of all. I must also add in very bold terms – The scales fell off a lot of people’s eyes. People saw in some instances what their so-called religious leaders and the institutions they have built were truly about. It was also a period of reset. A period of spiritual calm. A moment of reflection and re-assessment. Even the religious institutions had to rethink their strategies. After all, there is an important financial side to it which must remain buoyant for the work to be done. It was a tough one. 

So, we are all left now thinking one thing – Your personal walk with your God in the absence of any man remains the most critical. This amazingly is new to a lot of us. Let’s go way way back. Before the Catholic Ministers came bringing Christianity, we lived a life of divinity. Someone always represented us in talking to the gods. Someone always acting in capacity of Interpreter. This has largely been how we have known it and this is still representative of us till today even in our religions of today. However way we see it, it is a whole new world. There will be the quiet resistance and effort to get things back to “how it was”. But it’s a new day with new awakenings. 

Immigration

The Youth. Ah! The Youth! Who are the youths in Nigeria? Well, the Youth are hurt. They are agitating. They are angry. And a few are quiet. Immigration this year will experience a shift like never before. The mere thought of imagining you can get out of this country can actually land you out of the country! As the world economies struggle to rebound, there will be a demand. And Nigerian youths will wake up to that demand. And there will be structures to help them meet those skills that opportunities demand. In fact, the only solution would be for Nigeria not to issue passports anymore. Post COVID, there would be a serious draw on Africans who were not really affected by the virus. It means they can WORK! Cheaper health insurance costs! And the carpet would be rolled out like no other time. And they will come running across it! Young and Old. All Youthful in mind! Minds were quietly made up during that downtime of COVID. The Youth in Nigeria had lots of time to think! 

Politics

The virus was actually absent in this world in Nigeria. Some politicians got the virus, but nothing changed. The EndSars protests brought more changes. Pulling from last year’s perspectives, I wrote: “The reality also has begun to hit on who the candidates for 2023 will eventually be. Not because Group 3 said so, but because Group 1 thinks so. They will attempt to call these individuals from Group 2 “Leaders”. But that will soon fade. So, in my view, whatever the secret alliances happening between Groups 2 and 3, let’s check back in January 2021 for who is still alive before we begin to make any firm speculations. Till then, I would say not much will rock the boat. Politicians might as well go on a leave of absence for now. Nothing they do at this point in time will stick nor make any real mark on their ambitions for 2023. But in minute ways, slowly and steadily, the alliances will be formed.”

 The sharp reality is that the protests revealed/gave rise to the true shape of grassroot politics. What parties must do to win the next election – Either spend a lot more or save their money and present a deserving candidate. 

What I think will be most critical is not “Who” for 2023 but what structure. This is 2021 and the structure looks like 3 parties and not 2. It may be a first for Nigeria since we have always been used to 2 dominant parties for elections in Nigeria. Age of candidates will play a significant role. Incumbency for the first time will have no extended advantage nor support in the process other than facilitation of an election. But we are still a long way off. These are still the outer linings to come. But will run through the year.

Businesses and Corporates

Like I said in my intro, it was actually different strokes for different folks. There were bright spots for 2020 in the Haulage and Light goods sectors. Home deliveries shot up through the sky! This facilitated many new businesses. It also gave rise to warehousing and huge creation of internet-based content especially through social media. A quiet revolution in sales and private businesses happened. Even the Post Office of Nigeria saw orders and packages like no other time in terms of new customers and businesses. 

What’s to learn is that we all should stop focusing on the doom and gloom like we always have and seek to understand how the few who are doing very well are navigating these waters. Cos the few can actually become many! 

In 2021, Businesses that are set in their ways will be forced to re-evaluate their so-called cultures and ways of doing business. The landscape has changed totally. Service delivery has changed too.The fears of another lockdown with partial lockdowns will probably feature throughout the year.

Channels and Payments systems which I have always encouraged to be electronic will now determine growth this year. 

Customers will become so virtual, that your inability to service a customer in any geographical part of the country will easily translate to your business loss. And the results will show quickly. 

This to me will be the year of the beginning of Data. Either Big or small Data. This year, businesses will have to begin to understand and collect data. Demographics, Profiling, Spending patterns and all the works. They will need to understand their customers. Who they are, where are they from, what do they want, how do they want it. This is because, the age of the physical customer is not gone. Businesses will have to seek to understand the science of the sector they belong. What it takes to make it in the sector with cut throat margins. 

I foresee a situation where Old and Existing companies will be bought only because of their perceived data;  the customer base; the number of products;  etc. Any innovative technology company that can provide these tools and insights will be king through 2021. 

Technology

It’s amazing how we take technology for granted. Now it’s in our everyday lives. More integrated than we even want it to be. Though in January 2020, my perspective was that new technologies were peaking and people would stick to what they knew, what I guess nobody foresaw was the deepening of technologies. The frequency of usage of technology channels to access goods and services went through the roof. I suspect it will continue that way through 2021. Again, companies providing technology services will need to evolve to provide more services in other sectors yet untouched. 

Like I said Last Year January 2020, I will repeat thus: “The wise technology companies and service providers should deepen, automate and invest more on their current customers. Customer support systems will be critical this year. There will be enough time for customers to make their complaints and grievances known. So, it will be a time to invest more in systems that ensure customer communication and satisfaction. All interactions must be properly documented as we are more legal savvy in the country now.” 

Personal Finance

2020 was a roller coaster year. In fact, the word was “total uncertainty”. But somehow, we all survived. And like I have seen, I cannot generalize as I saw a lot of people with new opportunities and I also saw lots of job losses and financial failures. 

With what I personally saw in 2020, the method to the madness of Nigeria lies within your personal abilities and connections. I saw people buy expensive cars out of boredom during COVID19 lockdown. I saw high and insane consumption of expensive alcohols and I heard of many acquisitions of useless items. In the same vein, I saw people hungry. I saw people’s livelihoods wiped away. But what was common to all, was the spending of savings of a lot of people. My advice is that 2021 should be a year to rebuild your savings. And if I might add, make it currency based. 

Those that were at peace during 2020 were mostly people who had foreign currency cash assets and had already started on a path to keeping money in multicurrency dimensions. I am in no way putting down the Naira or saying doom and gloom about the economy. I am just talking about those that I found to have “more peace” during the storm.

It was a period of minimality for those who cared to respond to the situation positively. Thus, going forward lots of luxuries cut off in 2020 will probably remain cut off. Parties and associated investments will remain on the low. Luxury travel and unplanned expenses will also be low during 2021. People will begin to ask themselves – Why spend?

Like I have advised many times, multiple sources of income remain important in Nigeria. Not applicable necessarily elsewhere. 

Ways and means to save money, cut off of unplanned expenses and retention of  more of cash than assets remain key to 2021 as the lockdown possibilities and economic challenges under the “second wave” may make 2020 look like child’s play. 

In terms of acquiring multiple sources of income, I would still personally advise you do not invest in any business you cannot personally monitor. This is an investment and not a second source of income. If there is trouble during the year, Investments would suffer. There are not enough structures to protect investors in Nigeria especially with small businesses. Exiting money from businesses in Nigeria is quite “difficult” to say the least. 

No matter how small, a second source of income is any business you determine the payment mode, you determine pricing and you determine margins. No matter the scale. 

General Outlook

With the thoughts of what we now call “New Normal” which nobody even understands right now, it’s hard to actually give any kind of useful perspective into what I think might happen in 2021. But it’s important to note one thing, at 30,000 feet in Nigeria, nothing really changes. Even if death rate drastically increases from COVID19, it may not change the fundamentals, just the players. 

The currency of 2021 will be Health. Good health. There will be variants and fears of COVID that will shape how we proceed through 2021. Nigerians have tried to brush past the virus as if it didn’t exist or was made only for the wealthy. That strategy will reveal its truth whether its working or not through 2021. It’s actually one of Trump’s mantra for people to live their lives irrespective of the virus. Nigerians have inadvertently keyed into this mindset with the low level of deaths recorded.

There will be new world orders on movements and restrictions in the world which will change the way Nigerians will conduct their businesses. Travel is important to Nigeria. So, there will be lots of changes in that area. 

An area I would like to reiterate would be Migration like I said before. Lots of quiet minds were made up during 2020 for execution in 2021. 

A point of worry during 2021 would be vaccinations. Plans and execution of it must be properly done else it becomes a political matter which might upset the entire country. 

On the Government side, acts to consolidate efforts at stabilizing the country and the economy would not be the only focal issue. The presentation and acceptance of it would be the critical issue for 2021. Which becomes a real perception issue. 

From the experiences of 2020, I daresay that it has shaped as well as strengthened us. It has prepared us for what may come. But it would have done the nation a lot of good to have imbibed protocols of COVID19 in preventing the spread of the disease because we are also not thinking yet about re-infections and variants of the COVID19 virus that may be more lethal. I wish on no nation, the kinds of losses that have happened in the USA. For a death rate of 50,000 in Nigeria will be a terrible situation much less over 300,000. 

Sadly, our imported mantra in Nigeria remains….. Get rich or die trying! 

Wishing u Good health in 2021 more than money!