It’s the year 2020. It came a long time ago, with many acronyms and talking points associated with the numbers 2020. There was Vision2020 which we all knew then, but as of now, we can’t really say what exactly we did with that vision. Nonetheless, the 2020 mentioned there has come finally. And it came quietly.
Looking at 2019 and all those that found new access to lending for personal reasons or business reasons, you saw that last year, I defined 2019 as the year of lending. This reality came about the middle of the year as everyone got offers of lending like never before. This will continue into 2020. So let’s get into 2020.
There are many types of Nigerians. And I must say, the variants are growing. But I will talk about 3 groups which affect a large number of us.
Group 1: The normal, resilient, hardworking and religious Nigerian
A lot of people fall into this group. They try to act normal, they try to appreciate life, they try to follow the rules, they try to be somebody, they work hard, they pray hard, they attend religious events dutifully. They are usually described as good people. They sometimes vote. They complain a lot about Nigeria. Events unfold around them. Some of them die. Some die needlessly. But what strikes me as strange about this group, is their ability to simply push on irrespective of the odds and daily uphill battles.
The evasive middle class of Nigeria, which was supposed to come out of this group, still remains an unknown. But let’s assume there is a middle class, they would still belong to Group 1 to me.
When it comes to God, they submit. They leave the future in the hands of their God. In some people’s eyes, they are eating from under the crumbs of the table.
They are watched and preyed on by these people I refer to as Group 2.
Group 2: The opportunist, the politician, the go-getter.
They lay in wait most of the time. They are calculating. They understand Nigeria more than Group 1. They know what the word “grass-root” means. They know its not about a plant. They need some elements of Group 1 to succeed. They show perfect understanding of what Group 1 wants. At least, some of them. They are out to make a name. They want their names called forever. They desire wealth.
Wealth that transcends generations. Wealth they want their children’s children to see even whilst alive. They suspect their names will be erased in the sands but they try anyway. They test Group 1 and see their resolve. Where they see weakness, they take full advantage. In Group 2, they become leaders. They become governors, they become Ministers, Director-Generals, they have titles. They create titles for themselves. Amazingly, the only title they have not coveted for themselves on a large scale is called “Professor”. This is greatly still protected by Academia of the country. So they go with other titles. They are sometimes unknown till they want to be known. Which introduces Group 3.
Group 3: The Guardians
The unknown in the shadows. The planners. The seers. The strategists. The keepers of the country. The guardians of the elite. The invisible force that keeps the country floating. The voices that make things happen without speaking. They know what’s happening. They know what’s going on. They usually know who is going to be out in the cold in Group 2. They sell great stories to Group 1. They know the limits of Group 1. They fear the limits of Group 2. To think this group does not exist is totally unwise for a country like Nigeria. They also hold one key element of this country. It’s called Permanent Interests. Like we saw in 2019 elections, when the interests of this group were disrupted, they emerged from the shadows, bared their fangs, made the correction and disappeared again.
In 2020, all the three groups will be quiet. All will want to watch and see what the other is doing. None of them will make sudden moves. Nothing is at stake for the three currently. Its like a feeling of the cruising altitude of a plane. Once reached, everything just continues to go on normally.
My perspective is drawn from my inability to see any real moves or actions in any of the 3 groups as we enter 2020. The first half of the year, will be quiet except for the scratches, movements, yellings and yearnings from the big child we call “ The Economy” who will scream for daddy. Daddy will say “Go and meet mummy”. Mummy will say: “your Daddy doesn’t appreciate me. I have no tools to work! I am not working again! So go and meet your uncles!”. Uncles will say, Am I your father?
The only danger that will arise quite quickly apart from the crying of the child, will be the theft of food of the child whilst the baby cries. Apathy will set in deeper and no one will take responsibility.
There will be quite a few short-lived and bright moments. But it doesn’t reflect the true situation.
Religion:
As we are all religious in this country, we experienced the shakeups as expected regarding social media and Religion last year. Not so great stories and experiences coming out of religious institutions across board. None really better than the other. Learned religious leaders who have now learnt how to deal with these obstacles will bring about an uneasy quiet in the scheme of things. Sensational news and events which occasioned 2019 will reduce. So more of quiet. The greatest level of quiet, will come from the people who now practically believe they have now seen it all. Nothing will surprise them. Nothing will be sensational anymore this year. All seem to be tired and quiet, resorting to allowing some time to pass before they begin to believe anything again. Even the biggest voices who call out religious leaders in the sector will be quieter.
This year will be a year of what I would call the Soft Rhythms of Religion. Flowing, smooth, without big spikes or bangs, spiced with routine. Those with strong religious beliefs and routines developed in the past, will find peace.
Migration:
Canada. USA. London. Everywhere. We all want to go anywhere but Nigeria. Towards the end of the year, that also slowed down. Whilst many thought about it, fewer and fewer people have actually taken the risk and the plunge to go. Migration in my perspective will reduce. Not because Nigeria may be better, but because they just don’t expect things to be as good as people describe over there. The Hard Brexit is coming. Seems like the only thing worth noting in the Horizon. It will come. It will hit. There will be winners and losers for many Nigerians. In my opinion, most Nigerians living in the UK will ride it out. With the Europeans gone, its commonwealth countries will once again be in relevance. Structures dismantled with the Brexit will need to be replaced. I suspect they will come calling back to their Commonwealth nations and seek better partnership. This should create jobs, opportunities at least for those who have chosen to stay and stuck in there. For the new migrants or those planning it, the only question you need to answer would be simply “what do you have to offer?”. Don’t let that cast a shadow on what you think you have achieved in Nigeria. If you can’t answer, don’t plan on going anywhere. Trump will remain the wildcard. The biggest unknown. Sadly, which ever way he goes, the world will swing that way. He knows the world is watching. And he also knows it’s not a show. We all need to get ready.
Politics:
This landscape will see more activity, re-alignments but all still grinding to a slow halt. Currently, there are rumours. There are grumblings. There are allegations that all the positions in the country are now 85% a select ethnicity or language in the country. This is where the merger between Group 2 and Group 3 comes in. This will be the key to all the events that will happen in 2020. Bear in mind, it’s a post- election year. It’s also a second term. The members of Group 2 looking for relevance in 2023 will now begin to seek out members of Group 3. This will be the cause for many re-alignments. This will shed more light on the direction of Group 3. There will be many signs of this direction.
The reality also has begun to hit on who the candidates for 2023 will eventually be. Not because Group 3 said so, but because Group 1 thinks so. They will attempt to call these individuals from Group 2 “Leaders”. But that will soon fade.
So, in my view, whatever the secret alliances happening between Group 2 and 3, let’s check back in January 2021 for who is still alive before we begin to make any firm speculations. Till then, I would say not much will rock the boat. Politicians might as well go on a leave of absence for now. Nothing they do at this point in time will stick nor make any real mark on their ambitions for 2023. But in minute ways, slowly and steadily, the alliances will be formed.
Businesses and Corporates
Remember that crying child? That child is going to make a fuss! Scream down the house. It may not be nice. That child already with so many bandages on its body, will cry from banging its head once more.
Due to the “Unknown” feeling and nature of the business clime of 2020, there will be quiet headaches felt all over. So many experts I have spoken to have just said clearly – We just don’t know!
Corporates began a quiet offloading especially in the Banking sector towards the end of last year. Many out of Jobs. Many wondering what to do next. Quite a few more offloads to happen. It is not a message of gloom and doom. Its just a period of careful threading. Careful monitoring. Careful spending! A simple test – How many Happy New Year SMS messages did you get from Corporate organisations this year? Not many, I assume. The squeeze is on!
So my perspective is that the Corporate will have to thread carefully. Lightly. Be tight fisted. Even tighter than before. Those running services not considered essential will have to be careful. They may lose business overnight if they don’t innovate and deepen their services.
One other critical area businesses must focus on this year is called “turnaround time”. The time it takes for you to service a customer. The impatience of Nigerians continues to grow. They will measure a lot of businesses by the time it will take to get served or serviced. Delays in customer support, ordering, delivery and most importantly, general enquiries will determine if they move to your competitor who is doing this better (and may never come back). Invest in ways to improve or ensure the time between the decision of a buyer/customer to buy that product/service is shorter than everyone else.
Technology
In a way, we are peaking in respect of technology for now. There has been maximum adoption. Maximum utilization. Not many new features coming out these days. So we all just simply ride with what we have currently. In the least, Technology and its applications in 2020 will only seek to consolidate. More spending will be in the area of retention, quality control, integration and harmonization. This will extend to many areas including Telecommunications and social media platforms. I am not expecting anything drastically new. Or any technology that will create that big bang. So for people in the sector, it’s a year to consolidate. Train. Create loyalty.
Even with applications and software systems, people will tend to stick to what they know in 2020. No new confusions.
The wise technology companies and service providers should deepen, automate and invest more on their current customers. Customer support systems will be critical this year. There will be enough time for customers to make their complaints and grievances known. So it will be a time to invest more in systems that ensure customer communication and satisfaction. All interactions must be properly documented as we are more legal savvy in the country now.
Personal Finance
It will start out great. But watch out. Some of the baggage you picked up in 2019 may come to haunt you. Extra expenses, extra commitments etc. Due to the perception of 2020, most people (Group 1 and 2) will become careful in commitments. Especially on the financial side.
It is in your interest to continue to seek out a lifestyle that will encourage savings. Find a way to protect your money in other systems other than cash. Notwithstanding, I would never support any quick money schemes this year as that has been proven to have damaged a lot of people in recent years.
It is not a year with any economic booms in the horizon. So any thoughts of crazy or unplanned spending should be shelved.
I will still share some of my greatest rules for your personal finance below
- Document all spending. By now, if you have been doing this, you would have seen the pattern emerging. You would be ready for January. You may even have set aside funds for it already. If you have not been documenting all spending, please I beg you, start doing so.
- On demand services will continue. Maybe not at a high growth rate. But it will still be there. Its cheaper.
- Multiple sources of income. This year, this will not be an option. It will be critical and will require better planning to harness and control your finances.
- Luxury spending, like a yoyo, will come and go. No real highs or lows.
- There was access to a lot of “free money” last year. Have a plan to pay all that money back this year. Which may mean your ability to harness more sources of income.
General Outlook
Like I said earlier, it’s not all doom and gloom. Its looks like a year to be taken slowly. Carefully. Stealthily. Be careful not to make any unplanned and sudden moves that put you out in the cold. Anyone out in the cold this year, will really feel that pressure. So try your best to prevent that. Key components are your Jobs. Savings. Incomes. Guard and protect them.
If you belong to Group 2 and you are reading this piece, then you know clearly well this is not the year to invest in anything political. Keep up the appearances. Use more of your mouth to talk rather than invest. Be a motivational speaker for now if need be. It will help the cause.
If you belong to Group 3, well….. You know how this goes. The secret of most of the people in Group 2 are in your hands. Its not time to use it. Where we see members of this group keeping quiet and observing, it is surely a time to step back and watch what happens.
Overall, there will be a few shows of maturity of the country in dealing with corruption. Short lived but with huge impact.
I wish everyone the best during this starting year.
